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The Outsiders: The top 100 players not in the Baseball Hall of Fame

Let’s begin our next crazy project with a question: If you took the 100 worst players in the Baseball Hall of Fame — I don’t like using the word “worst” when talking about the Hall, but I cannot think of a better one — and replaced them with the 100 best players not in the Hall of Fame, what do you think would happen?

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Would the Hall of Fame itself get worse? Better? Would it stay about the same?

I was playing around with this question one day a few weeks ago. My suspicion was that it would be about the same — that it was even possible that the overall quality of the Hall of Fame might get a little better with the deal. I mean, we know there are some legendary players who for non-baseball reasons are not in the Hall (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson, etc.) and they would probably skew the results a bit.

I was not prepared for the reality of the situation.

If you took the 100 best players not in the Hall of Fame — and I’m only talking about players who have been retired for more than five years, so I’m not including A-Rod and Adrián Beltré and Ichiro and the like — and just put them in place of the Hall’s bottom 100, the Hall of Fame’s quality would skyrocket.

I mean, it’s not even close. To do some quick figuring, I used Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Average rather than Wins Above Replacement. I find it to be a better statistic when talking about Hall of Famers. WAR is good when trying to determine how many wins a player adds to a team. But when talking about the Hall of Fame, I want to know just how much better than average that player was.

OK, so the bottom 100 players in the Hall of Fame combined for 1,881 Wins Above Average.

The 100 players not in the Hall of Fame combined for 3,167 Wins Above Average.

It’s a blowout. There are 50 non-Hall of Famers — fifty of them, and again, I’m not even including active players or players who have not yet come up on the ballot — who have more Wins Above Average than any of the bottom 100 Hall of Famers. Many people will talk about, say, this year’s ballot entry Mark Buehrle as a very good pitcher but not quite a Hall of Famer. That may be so. But he is one of the 50 I’m talking about. If Buehrle was elected to the Hall of Fame, he would immediately have a viable argument of being better than 100 players already in the Hall of Fame.

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We just don’t realize how many incredible players are not in the Hall of Fame … or at least, I didn’t realize it. So I decided to count down the 100 greatest players who are outside the Hall.

I’m going to explain the countdown here, but first let me define terms: I am only including players on this list who could be elected into the Hall of Fame tomorrow. In my original list, I included all players, including active players and those who are waiting to get on the Hall of Fame ballot. I’ll rank a few of those below to get us warmed up.

And the ranking is not based solely on the player’s greatness. No, I am ranking them in the order that I would vote them into the Hall of Fame. As you probably know, the Baseball Writers are asked to consider every player based on five characteristics:

  • Playing ability
  • Integrity
  • Sportsmanship
  • Character
  • Contribution to team(s) on which they played.
  • There has been a lot of controversy about the Hall of Fame character clause. The bottom four categories — integrity, sportsmanship, character, team contributions — have mostly been used to disqualify or attempt to disqualify players. But I don’t think that was ever the entire point. I think the point was for Hall of Fame voters to be open-minded about greatness, to consider players who not only were great on the field but also were a credit to baseball, players who made the game better, players who brought color and life and teamwork and leadership to the sport. I have tried to think about all that in these rankings.

    But, of course, the most important quality by far is “playing ability.” I try not to forget that.

    So we’re going to count them down, 100 to 1, but this time I’m going to cheat just a little: The first 70 players will not get their own individual essay. I still haven’t recovered from doing all those Baseball 100 essays. Instead, we’ll do 10 at a time, just to get the ball rolling and then the final 30 will each get their own essay. If we time this right, and I think we do, this will lead right up to the 2021 Baseball Hall of Fame announcement.

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    Oh, one other thing: I’m writing a short Hall of Fame plaque for each player. These will be based on the pithy plaques the Hall of Fame used to use back at the start. For instance, Ty Cobb’s plaque:

    Tyrus Raymond Cobb
    Detroit-Philadelphia, A.L.—1905-1928

    Led American League in batting twelve times and created or equalled more Major League records than any other player. Retired with 4191 Major League hits.

    That’s it. That’s the whole plaque (and, yes, that’s how they spelled “equaled”). Walter Johnson’s plaque was just as succinct.

    Walter Perry Johnson
    Washington—1907-1927

    Conceded to be fastest ball pitcher in history of game. Won 414 games with losing team behind him many years. Holder of strike out and shut out records.

    It’s perfect. Nowadays, they write a whole megillah for every player — Chipper Jones’ plaque, for example, contains more than four times as many words as Cobb’s or Johnson’s or Babe Ruth’s. I mean, OK, we get it. Plus now they include so many numbers. The old plaques were folksy, fun. Ruth’s plaque talks about how he was the greatest drawing card in the history of baseball.

    And now? Again, not to pick on Chipper, but his plaque contains his batting average, homers, RBIs, how many homers he hit in his MVP year, what his batting average was when he won the batting title, the fact that he has a .300 batting average, .400 on-base percentage and .500 slugging percentage, etc. It’s gotten out of hand.

    So I’ll be doing old fashioned plaques for players.

    And now, as a bonus, I’ll give you my unofficial Hall ranking for the top 10 players who are not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame.

    1. José Alberto Pujols Alcántara
    St. Louis—Los Angeles Angels, 2001-present

    A three-time MVP, Prince Albert was the best player in the game for most of his prime. Fifth all-time in career home runs. Hit a playoff home run off Houston’s Brad Lidge that silenced the world.

    2. Michael Nelson Trout
    Los Angeles Angels, 2011-present

    A five-tool player who could do everything on a baseball diamond. In a nine-year span he won three most valuable player awards and finished second four other times. Latest in long line of great center fielders, from Charleston to DiMaggio to Mays to Mantle.

    3. Adrián Beltré Pérez
    Los Angeles Dodgers—Seattle—Boston—Texas, 1998-2018

    A defensive genius at the hot corner, he also clubbed more than 600 doubles and 450 home runs. Brought countless moments of joy to the game. Do not touch his head.

    4. Ichiro Suzuki
    Seattle—New York Yankees—Miami, 2001-2019

    The worldwide hit leader with 4367 total hits across his time in Japan and the United States. Awesome defensive right fielder with a breathtaking arm. Ran the bases with gorgeous abandon. Had strong opinions about the heat in Kansas City.

    5. Clayton Edward Kershaw
    Los Angeles Dodgers, 2008-present

    Three-time Cy Young Award winner so resembled all-time great Sandy Koufax that broadcaster Vin Scully would say he sometimes confused the two when calling games. Won five ERA titles. Captured two victories in 2020 World Series to end popular and infuriating narrative that he couldn’t win in the postseason.

    6. Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez
    Seattle—Texas—New York Yankees, 1994-2016

    Three-time MVP and one of the most complete players in the history of baseball. His fly balls seemed to travel farther than anyone else’s. In all, he crushed 696 home runs. He was suspended for a season for involvement in performance enhancing drug scandal.

    7. David Americo Ortiz Arias
    Minnesota—Boston, 1997-2016

    One of the greatest clutch hitters of all time. Big Papi was the force behind the 2004 Boston Red Sox winning their first World Series in 86 years. The most beloved player of his era, his greatest moment might have been the stirring speech he gave in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombing.

    8. José Miguel Cabrera Torres
    Florida—Detroit, 2003-present

    Nobody hit the baseball harder than Miggy. Third basemen feared for their lives. He won four batting titles in five years, including in 2012 when he pulled off the rare feat of winning the triple crown.

    9. Justin Brooks Verlander
    Detroit—Houston, 2005-present

    Fireballer led the American League in strikeouts five times and would amaze everyone by throwing his fastest pitches in the late innings. Won two Cy Young Awards and finished second three other times.

    10. Maxwell M. Scherzer
    Arizona—Detroit—Washington, 2008-present

    A legendary competitor, hitters would shudder when facing power stuff. He won three Cy Young Awards, threw two no-hitters in 2015 and in 2016 struck out 20 in a game, tying the all-time record. His right eye is blue and his left eye is brown.

    And now, on to the top 100. We’ll begin on Monday, Nov. 30.

    Nov. 30: Nos. 100-91
    Dec. 2: Nos. 90-81
    Dec. 4: Nos. 80-71
    Dec. 7: Nos. 70-61
    Dec. 8: Nos. 60-51
    Dec. 9: Nos. 50-41
    Dec. 10: Nos. 40-31
    Dec. 11: No. 30, Curt Schilling
    Dec. 14: No. 29, Reggie Smith
    Dec. 15: No. 28, Doc Adams
    Dec. 16: No. 27, Johan Santana
    Dec. 17: No. 26, David Cone
    Dec. 18: No. 25, Felipe Alou & Dusty Baker
    Dec. 21: No. 24, Sammy Sosa & Gary Sheffield
    Dec. 22: No. 23, Fred McGriff
    Dec. 23: No. 22, Keith Hernandez
    Dec. 24: No. 21, John Donaldson
    Dec. 28: No. 20, Manny Ramírez
    Dec. 29: No. 19, Todd Helton
    Dec. 30: No. 18, Bobby Grich
    Jan. 4: No. 17, Luis Tiant & Billy Wagner
    Jan. 5: No. 16, Kenny Lofton
    Jan. 6: No. 15, Andruw Jones & Jim Edmonds
    Jan. 7: No. 14, Mark McGwire
    Jan. 8: No. 13, Gil Hodges
    Jan. 11: No. 12, Shoeless Joe Jackson
    Jan. 12: No. 11, Dale Murphy
    Jan. 13: No. 10, Dwight Evans
    Jan. 14: No. 9, Pete Rose
    Jan. 15: No. 8, Curt Flood
    Jan. 18: No. 7, Dick Allen
    Jan. 19: No. 6, Lou Whitaker
    Jan. 20: No. 5, Scott Rolen
    Jan. 21: No. 4, Roger Clemens
    Jan. 22: No. 3, Barry Bonds
    Jan. 25: No. 2, Buck O’Neil
    Jan. 26: No. 1, Minnie Miñoso

    (Illustration: Stu Ohler/ The Athletic)

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